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Post by Nivra on Jul 9, 2013 7:30:18 GMT
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Post by Erathia on Jul 9, 2013 7:47:10 GMT
meh, that dimming part sounds made up to me, the rest is good
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Post by perthia on Jul 9, 2013 15:07:40 GMT
This guide sounds like a load of bull honestly.
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zander
New Member
Lowly noob archer, trying to survive ;)
Posts: 3 
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Post by zander on Jul 11, 2013 2:00:46 GMT
before i even noticed that more than one astral on the bottom could be lit, I've received two red astral's. But always willing to try something different once.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 4:14:32 GMT
Astrals?
...
In Vegas they give me free drinks!
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nivra
New Member
Posts: 33
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Post by nivra on Jul 20, 2013 4:48:28 GMT
Shrug. After I staretd doing it, I got 4 orange with like 1-1.5M gold. Not sure if it really works tho. Seems to, but meh.
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tiav
New Member
Posts: 12 
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Post by tiav on Aug 1, 2013 16:27:02 GMT
I have pretty thoroughly tested this stuff, and these are my results.
Timing does not matter. You can click when it is faded, full or any other such thing, it is completely random. I have not bothered to measure the probabilities because I don't want to waste that kind of time. It does however seem that the probability is lowest for the first one and goes slightly up for bumping the arrow on each spot. If I had to venture a guess, I would say the probability of advancing the first one is 10%, the second 20%, the third 30% and the fourth 40%.
Because of the nature of this, the methodology of aligning the arrows before advancing may give you a higher chance of getting better astrals. The reason is a simple matter of maximizing higher star clicks. Let us presume for one second that my guesses on advancement are correct. If this is the case, then you will achieve a blue click roughly every 415 total clicks. That is very poor return. Simply looking at the conditional probability measure for having the blue one lit and nothing else. I will use rounded numbers to nearest 5 for ease (it isn't like I have thoroughly tested the probabilities, this is meant as a mathematical explanation and naught more.
Whereas the math on this gets too complicated for most people to follow, this is nothing more than a binomial event tree that can be solved as a continuous time markov chain where you use the state probabilities and simply determine the probability of being in the last state. Specifically, convert the probabilities to rate parameters and solve the model as a birth and death process. I have found a flaw in my original thinking, so I am going to solve this model while I can't login anyway.
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cherp
New Member
Posts: 3
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Post by cherp on Aug 1, 2013 22:25:37 GMT
i just think there is a monkey in a room pressing the orange astral button when he wants a banana
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tiav
New Member
Posts: 12
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Post by tiav on Aug 1, 2013 22:33:27 GMT
Being as how I haven't been able to play, I have had the time to do this: Attached is an image with the state map defining the proposed strategy, and the balance equations. As I said, this has been handled as a birth and death process where I used my assumed (10%,20%,30%,40%) probabilities and converted those to rates of lighting up the sequential arrows. I followed up with a second model, where you simply click the highest level astral at each point. The results, you may or may not like, but were simple and fascinating. The probability of being in the state that you would click the blue astral in both methods is exactly the same (1/470.6666). Hence, the number of blue clicks was the same. I further checked the two against how many times in the sequence you would likely click each star...also exactly the same. Whereas the percentage of the time you would click each star will vary with the assumed probabilities, the result that the two methods yield the same outcome will not change. There is one possible exception, and that is if the probability of advancing to a new state is dependent on the prior arrows being lit (this CERTAINLY does NOT seem to be the case)...if that were true the result would change. What I will say is that following this strategy has been a little more fun for me...so I will continue to do it, knowing that it doesn't matter, simply because I find it more entertaining. Essentially what you need to gather from all of this, even though I went overboard in proving it...so long as the move you are making has a chance to light up ANY of the arrows, it is efficient, and you are getting the most higher level clicks for your expenditures. The only bad move is clicking a star that cannot light up an arrow (i.e. clicking the first star even though the first arrow is lit).  |
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